As for the Olympics, this article paints a pretty grim picture of Japan’s medal hopes:

In November, the Japanese Olympic Committee released its latest outlook report pointing out that the country’s athletes were capable of winning just five gold medals in Beijing compared with the 16 they collected in Athens in 2004.

It will be interesting to see if I’m right about the robots. These things tend to happen overnight, so it’s hard to write off as a definite no, particularly when the definition of an artificially intelligent robot is so vague.

1. A new Japanese Prime Minister

I’d be more impressed if you said there wasn’t going to be one!

2. iPhone flops in Japan

Multi-touch will not be offered by anyone else in the time-frame given. It will be a moderate success, but the input method, the lack of emoji, and the general disinterest in smartphones/PDAs will mean it won’t hit the mainstream like in the US and to some extent Europe.

3. Japanese athlete wins Olympic gold

You’re way off here - there will be a good number of judo golds. There may be just one track and field win, with woman’s marathon looking like the best bet, and I think perhaps in swimming too?

4. Aibo-style robot boom begins

No.

5. Japan has the hottest summer on record

Yes.

6. Food scandals continue in 2008

Yes, of course. I also predict there will be no scandal about mercury and other heavy metals in whale or tuna.

7. Over a dozen killed in Japanese earthquake

This is pretty much a given, I’m afraid.

8. Large, scandal-ridden company makes headlines

And the Emporer is still a Shintoist and Hokkaido bears still using forest-based toilet facilities.

9. Foreign crime on the rise again

We didn’t get any fanfare this year, which suggests there was a statistical drop.

10. Higher taxes and higher prices

Most wheat-based staples are of course due to go up in price in January or February, but I’m not sure about tax rises.

Cheers Keith

Japan has become a very predictble country. Earthquakes, typhoons, changing prime ministers and poor sporting performances have become annual events. In this post, I’ve written up ten predictions for Japan in the year 2008 which I’m pretty confident …

2007 - 14 dead in Niigata earthquake
2005 - 1 dead, 1087 injured in Fukuoka earthquake
2004 - 68 dead in Niigata earthquake
2003 - 1 dead, 849 injured in Hokkaido earthquake
2001 - 2 dead, 288 injured in Hiroshima earthquake

and of course:

1995 - 6,434 dead in Kobe earthquake

As for the prime ministers, here are some “longer-lasting” recent ones:

2001-2006 Koizumi (3 terms)
1998-2000 Obuchi
1996-1998 Hashimoto
1991-1993 Miyazawa
1989-1991 Kaifu
1987-1989 Takeshita
1982-1987 Nakasone (3 terms)

Note that since 1982, only Nakasone and Koizumi lasted more than 2 years! I count 13 prime ministers in the last 20 years (1987~).

It’s a shame the Japanese government can’t be a little more stable and pick a leader that can remain in power longer than 10 months, though … aside from Koizumi, has anyone in the last 20 years served more than a single year?

Very true Nick, oh so VERY true!